Goldilocks and the Three Planets
© Neil deGrasse Tyson
From Natural History magazine, May 1999
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Once upon a
time—four billion years ago—the formation of the solar system was
nearly complete. Venus had formed
close enough to the Sun for the intense solar energy to vaporize what might
have been its water supply. Mars
formed far enough away for its water supply to be forever frozen. And there was only one planet, Earth,
whose distance was "just right" for water to remain a liquid and whose surface
would become a haven for life. This region around the Sun came to be known as the Habitable Zone.
Goldilocks (of fairy-tale fame) liked things "just
right," too. One of the bowls of
porridge in the Three Bears' cottage was too hot. Another was too cold. The third was just right, so she ate it. Also in the Three Bear's cottage, one bed was too hard. Another was too soft. The third was just right, so Goldilocks
slept in it. When the Three Bears
came home, they discovered not only missing porridge, but Goldilocks fast
asleep in their bed. (I forgot how
the story ends, but if I were the Three Bears—omnivorous and at the top
of the food chain— I would have eaten Goldilocks.)
The relative habitability of Venus, Earth, and
Mars would intrigue Goldilocks, but the actual story of these planets is
somewhat more complicated than three bowls of porridge. Four billion years ago leftover
water-rich comets and mineral-rich asteroids were still pelting the planetary
surfaces, although at a much slower rate than before. During this game of cosmic billiards, some planets had
migrated inward from where they had formed while others were kicked up to
larger orbits. And among the
dozens of planets that had formed, some were on unstable orbits and crashed
into the Sun or Jupiter. Others
were ejected from the solar system altogether. In the end, the few that remained had orbits that were "just
right" to survive billions of years.
Earth settled into an orbit with an average
distance of 93 million from the Sun. At this distance, Earth intersects a measly one two-billionth of the
total energy radiated by the Sun. If you assume that Earth absorbs all incident energy from the Sun, then
our home planet's average is about 280 degrees Kelvin (50û F), which falls
mid-way between winter and summer temperatures. At normal atmospheric pressures, water freezes at 273
degrees and boils at 373 degrees Kelvin, so we are well-positioned for nearly
all of Earth's water to remain in a happy liquid state.
Not so
fast. Sometimes in science you can
get the right answer for the wrong reasons. Earth actually absorbs only two thirds of the energy that
reaches it from the Sun. The rest
is reflected back into space by Earth's surface (especially the oceans) and by
the clouds. If reflectivity is
factored into the equations then the average temperature for Earth drops to
about 255 degrees Kelvin, which is well-below the freezing point of water. Something must be operating in modern
times to raise our average temperature back to something a little more
comfortable.
But wait once more. All theories of stellar evolution tell us that four billion years ago, when life was forming out of
Earth's primordial soup, the Sun was a third less luminous than it is today,
which would have placed Earth's average temperature even further below
freezing.
Perhaps
Earth in the distant past was simply closer to the Sun. But after the early period of heavy
bombardment, no known mechanisms could have shifted stable orbits back and
forth within the solar system. Perhaps the greenhouse effect was stronger in the past. We don't know for sure. What we do know is that habitable
zones, as originally conceived, have only peripheral relevance to whether there
may be life on a planet within them.
The famous Drake equation, invoked in the search
for extraterrestrial intelligence, provides a simple estimate for the number of
civilizations one might expect to find in the Milky Way galaxy. When the equation was conceived in the
1960s by the American astronomer Frank Drake, the concept of a habitable zone
did not extend beyond the idea that there would be some planets at the "just
right" distance from their host stars. A version of the Drake equation reads: Start with the number of stars in the
galaxy (hundred of billions). Multiply this large number by the fraction of stars with planets. Multiply what remains by the fraction
of planets in the Habitable Zone. Multiply what remains by the fraction of those planets that evolved
life. Multiply what remains by the fraction that have evolved intelligent
life. Multiply what remains by the
fraction that might have developed a technology with which to communicate
across interstellar space. Finally, when you introduce a star formation rate and the expected
lifetime of a technologically viable civilization you get the number of
advanced civilizations that are out here now, possibly waiting for our phone
call.
Small, cool, low-luminosity stars live for
billions (and possibly trillions) of years, which ought to allow plenty of time
for the planets around them to evolve a life form or two, but their habitable zones fall very
close to the host star. A planet
that forms there will swiftly become tidally locked and always show the same
face toward the star (just as the Moon always shows the same face to Earth)
creating an extreme imbalance in planetary heating—all water on the
planet's "near" side would evaporate while all water on the planet's "far" side
would freeze. If Goldilocks lived
there, we would find her eating oatmeal while turning in circles (like a
rotisserie chicken) right on the border between eternal sunlight and eternal
darkness. Another problem with the
habitable zones around these long-lived stars is that they are extremely narrow
— a planet in a random orbit is unlikely to find itself at a distance
that is "just right".
Conversely, large, hot, luminous stars have
enormous habitable zones in which to find their planets. Unfortunately these stars live for only
a few million years before they violently explode, so their planets make poor
candidates in the search for life as we know it—unless, of course, some
rapid evolution occurred. But
animals that can do advanced calculus were probably not the first things to
slither out of the primordial slime.
We might think of the Drake equation as Goldilocks
mathematics—a method for exploring the chances of getting things just
right. But the Drake equation as
originally conceived misses Mars, which lies well-beyond the habitable zone of
the Sun. Mars displays countless
meandering dry riverbeds, deltas, and floodplains, which constitutes
in-your-face evidence for running water in the Martian past.
How about Venus, Earth's "sister" planet? It falls smack dab within the Sun's
habitable zone. Covered completely
by a thick canopy of clouds, the planet has the highest reflectivity of any
planet in the solar system. There
is no obvious reason why Venus could not have been a comfortable place. But it happens to suffer from a
monstrous greenhouse effect. Venus' thick atmosphere of carbon dioxide traps nearly one hundred
percent of the small quantities of radiation that reaches its surface. At 750 degrees Kelvin (900ûF) Venus is
the hottest planet in the solar system, yet it orbits at nearly twice Mercury's
distance from the Sun.
If
Earth has sustained the continuous evolution of life through billions of years
of storm and drama, then perhaps life itself provides a feedback mechanism that
maintains liquid water. This
notion was advanced by the biologists James Lovelock and Lynn Margulis in the 1970s
and is referred to as the Gaia Hypothesis. This influential, yet controversial idea requires that the
mixture of species on Earth at any moment acts as a collective organism that
continuously (yet unwittingly) tunes Earth's atmospheric composition and
climate to promote the presence of life—and by implication, the presence
of liquid water. I am intrigued by
the idea. It has even become the
darling of the New Age Movement. But I'd bet there are some dead Martians and Venusians who advanced the
same theory about their own planet a billion years ago.
The
concept of a habitable zone, when broadened, simply requires an energy source
of any variety to liquefy water. One of Jupiter's moons, icy Europa, is heated by the tidal forces of
Jupiter's gravitational field. Like a racquet ball that heats up after the continuous stress of getting
hit, Europa is heated from the varying stress induced by Jupiter pulling more
strongly on one side of the moon compared with the other. The consequence? Current observational and theoretical
evidence suggest that below the kilometer-thick surface ice there is an ocean
of liquid water, possibly slush. Given the fecundity of life within Earth's oceans, Europa remains the
most tantalizing place in the solar system for the possibility of life outside
of Earth.
Another
recent breakthrough in our concept of a habitable zone are the newly classified
extremophiles, which are life forms that not only exist, but thrive, in
climactic extremes of hot and cold. (If there were biologists among the extremophiles, they would surely
classify themselves as normal and any life that thrived in room temperature as
an extremophile.) Among the
extremophiles are the heat-loving thermophiles, commonly found at the mid-ocean
ridges, where pressurized water, superheated to well beyond its normal boiling
point, spews out from below Earth's crust into the cold ocean basin. The conditions are not unlike those
within a household pressure cooker, where high pressures are supplied by a
heavy-duty pot with a lockable lid, and the water is heated beyond ordinary
boiling temperatures, without actually coming to a boiling.
On the cold ocean floor, dissolved minerals
instantly precipitate out from the hot water vents and form giant porous
chimneys up to a dozen stories tall that are hot in their cores and cooler on
their edges, where they make direct contact with the ocean water. Across this temperature gradient live
countless life forms that have never seen the Sun and couldn't care less if it
were there. These hardy bugs live
on geothermal energy, which is a combination of the left-over heat from Earth's
formation and heat continuously leaching into Earth's crust from the
radioactive decay of naturally occurring, yet unstable isotopes of familiar
chemical elements such as Aluminum-26, which lasts millions of years, and
Potassium-40, which lasts billions.
At the ocean floor we have what may be the most
stable ecosystem on Earth. What if
a jumbo asteroid slammed into Earth and rendered all surface life extinct? The oceanic thermophiles would surely
continue undaunted in their happy ways. They might even evolve to repopulate Earth's surface after each
extinction episode. And what
if the Sun were mysteriously plucked from the center of the solar system and
Earth spun out of orbit, adrift in space? This event would surely not merit attention in the thermophile
press. But in five billion
years, the Sun will become a red giant as it expands to fill the inner solar
system. Meanwhile, Earth's oceans
will boil away and Earth, itself will vaporize. Now that would be news.
If thermophiles are ubiquitous on Earth, we are
lead to a profound question: Could
there be life deep within all those rogue planets that were ejected from the
solar system during its formation? These "geo"thermal reservoirs can last billions of years. How about the countless planets that
were forcibly ejected by every other solar system that ever formed? Could interstellar space be teeming
with life— formed and evolved deep within these homeless planets? Far from being a tidy region around a
star, receiving just the right amount of sunlight, the habitable zone is indeed
everywhere. So the Three Bears's
cottage was, perhaps, not a special place among fairy tales. Anybody's residence, even that of the
Three Little Pigs, might contain a sitting bowl of food at a temperature that
is just right. We have learned
that the corresponding fraction in the Drake equation, the one that accounts
for the existence of a planet within a habitable zone, may be as large as one
hundred percent.
What a hopeful fairy tale this is. Life, far from being rare and precious,
may be as common as planets themselves.
And the thermophilic bacteria lived happily ever
after—about five billion years.
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Neil de Grasse Tyson, an astrophysicist, is the
Frederick P. Rose Director of New York City's Hayden Planetarium and is a
research scientist at Princeton University, where this spring he is teaching
Introductory Astrophysics.
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