The climate of Hudson Bay is extremely variable in space and time. The last 40 years have been marked by decadal shifts in weather patterns which are not uniform across Hudson Bay. The characterization of these decadal trends for different regions of the Hudson Bay is a major objective. In particular, changes in the area of anomalous low temperature over time need to be quantified as this area includes major breeding sites for both Canada and snow geese. A second objective is the multivariate evaluation of major determinants of weather on goose staging, northward movement and reproductive success. The weather variables include temperature, snow depth, rainfall, degree days, wind strength and direction and sunlight hours. Goose demographic variables include dates of arrival and departure at various breeding and staging sites, date of nest initiation, clutch size, number of goslings at hatch, fledgling to adult ratio and possibly new colony establishment events. By finding weather variables that accurately predict goose activities and their annual variation, we will be in a better position to incorporate weather-driven stochastic events into our population projection model (see below).
- revised 12/08/97 -